INTERED ADDRESSES GROWTH PATTERNS OF ADULT-CENTERED PROGRAMS

According to Robert Tucker, president of InterEd, a research firm that supplies intelligence to online programs, "adult-centered programs are posting double-digit growth, overall, and triple-digit growth in some programs."

Most of this growth "appears to apply to adult-centered degree completion programs, corporate-focused and professional continuing education," he says, adding that "similar growth will soon be seen in the emerging markets for educating the new ‘extended’ middle-aged, formerly known as the retired or senior citizens. In this aggregate, we estimate adult-centered higher education enrollments are growing at least 12 to 15 percent per year."

Tucker makes the following observations concerning enrollment growth of adult-centered higher education as it relates to the current recession and the events of Sept. 11:

• Enrollment growth continues almost unchanged.
• During periods of standard economic growth, working adults tend to enroll for reasons of career advancement and professional enrichment. He calls this group "upside seekers." During times of economic decline some of the upside seekers are replaced by adults who enroll to help secure their current employment. He calls this group the "downside minimizers." However, downside minimizers have a slower decision cycle when it comes to actually enrolling, which could also be the result of companies suspending tuition reimbursement programs.
• The events of Sept. 11 had an effect of delaying people’s decisions to enroll slightly and has driven a few students into distance education options.
• The events of Sept. 11 did not have a substantial effect on the development of new continuing education programs related to such topics as workplace security, bioterrorism and other terrorism-related topics. Most of these types of programs were already in the works or in place prior to Sept. 11. The tragedy has not identified substantially new data or even a new set of education needs.
• Additionally, based on an InterEd November 2001 poll of adult-centered programs across the U.S. - and reflecting data from 181 campuses of regionally accredited institutions of higher education - fall 2001 program enrollments compared with the same period in the fall of 2000, yielded the following results:
• Adult-centered degree programs - 73 percent reported higher enrollments and 18 percent reported declines in enrollment.
• Non-credit, CE programs - 67 percent reported higher enrollments and 13 percent reported declines in enrollment.
• Of those schools able to report enrollment growth or decline as a percentage, the average change was a 16 percent increase in adult-centered degree programs and a 30 percent increase in non-credit/CE programs.
• While the above growth statistics describe all adult-centered programs, Tucker notes that the online portion of this market is by far the fastest growing.

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